Milan
Inter
The model leans Inter at 50%. Expected goals: Milan 1.08, Inter 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Milan won 3 of their last 6; Inter won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Milan | 24% | 4.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Inter | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Inter. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 1.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–07.0%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Inter −0.5| Milan line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 15% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.