Manchester City
Inter
The model leans Manchester City at 54%. Expected goals: Manchester City 2.16, Inter 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%. Manchester City won 3 of their last 5; Inter won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester City | 63% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Inter | 16% | 6.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Manchester City. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.16 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–17.1%
- 3–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester City −1| Manchester City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 23% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 20% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.