Manchester City
AFC Bournemouth
The model leans Manchester City at 55%. Expected goals: Manchester City 2.11, AFC Bournemouth 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%. Manchester City won 3 of their last 5; AFC Bournemouth won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester City | 64% | 1.55 | 1.48 | 64% | 0 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.63 | 4.50 | 21% | +1 |
| 2AFC Bournemouth | 14% | 7.13 | 6.50 | 15% | −1 |
Pick: Manchester City. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.11 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.0%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–07.7%
- 3–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester City −1| Manchester City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.