Manchester City
Atletico Madrid
The model leans Manchester City at 60%. Expected goals: Manchester City 2.26, Atletico Madrid 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%. Manchester City won 3 of their last 5; Atletico Madrid won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester City | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico Madrid | 13% | 7.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Manchester City. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.26 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–08.0%
- 3–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester City −1.5| Manchester City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 23% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.