Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
The model leans Atletico Madrid at 51%. Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 2.14, Villarreal 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%. Atletico Madrid won 1 of their last 4; Villarreal won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico Madrid | 56% | 1.77 | 1.75 | 54% | +2 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.47 | 3.90 | 24% | −2 |
| 2Villarreal | 21% | 4.71 | 4.33 | 22% | −1 |
Pick: Atletico Madrid. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.14 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–07.1%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico Madrid −1| Atletico Madrid line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 22% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 13% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.