Racing Santander
Villarreal
The model leans Villarreal at 38%. Expected goals: Racing Santander 1.86, Villarreal 1.99. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 74%. Racing Santander won 2 of their last 6; Villarreal won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Racing Santander | 36% | 2.78 | 3.50 | 27% | +9 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.41 | 3.60 | 26% | −3 |
| 2Villarreal | 41% | 2.42 | 2.00 | 47% | −6 |
Pick: Villarreal. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.86 – 1.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–17.9%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.2%
- 2–34.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Racing Santander 0| Racing Santander line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 17% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 21% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 19% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.