Predictions · LaLiga ·
Racing Santander
3–2
Won
Elche
The model leans Racing Santander at 42%. Expected goals: Racing Santander 1.93, Elche 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain45
24
31
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Racing Santander | 45% | 2.20 | 2.00 | 47% | −2 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.21 | 3.60 | 26% | −2 |
| 2Elche | 31% | 3.25 | 3.50 | 27% | +4 |
Pick: Racing Santander. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.93 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–05.8%
- 3–15.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Racing Santander −0.5| Racing Santander line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 20% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.