Racing Santander
Sporting Gijon
The model leans Racing Santander at 50%. Expected goals: Racing Santander 2.10, Sporting Gijon 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%. Racing Santander won 2 of their last 6; Sporting Gijon won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Racing Santander | 54% | 1.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting Gijon | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Racing Santander. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.10 – 1.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–06.9%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Racing Santander −0.5| Racing Santander line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 22% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.