Celta Vigo
Sporting Gijon
The model leans Celta Vigo at 51%. Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.77, Sporting Gijon 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Celta Vigo won 2 of their last 5; Sporting Gijon won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celta Vigo | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting Gijon | 19% | 5.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Celta Vigo. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.6%
- 0–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 43% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celta Vigo −1| Celta Vigo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.