Valencia
Celta Vigo
The model leans Valencia at 37%. Expected goals: Valencia 1.34, Celta Vigo 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Valencia won 1 of their last 5; Celta Vigo won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Valencia | 38% | 2.61 | 2.45 | 38% | 0 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | 3.10 | 30% | −1 |
| 2Celta Vigo | 33% | 3.07 | 3.00 | 31% | +1 |
Pick: Valencia. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–07.7%
- 1–27.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Valencia 0| Valencia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.