Sassuolo
Celta Vigo
The model leans Celta Vigo at 40%. Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.11, Celta Vigo 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Sassuolo won 2 of their last 5; Celta Vigo won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sassuolo | 28% | 3.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Celta Vigo | 44% | 2.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Celta Vigo. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celta Vigo −0.5| Sassuolo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.