Predictions · Coppa Italia · outside model coverage
Sassuolo
3–0
Won
Cesena
The model leans Sassuolo at 64%. Expected goals: Sassuolo 2.28, Cesena 0.66. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match73
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| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sassuolo | 73% | 1.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.46 | – | – | – |
| 2Cesena | 8% | 12.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sassuolo. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.28 – 0.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.8%
- 1–012.1%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sassuolo −1.5| Sassuolo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 24% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.