Predictions · Serie B · outside model coverage
Virtus Entella
1–2
Lost
Cesena
The model leans Virtus Entella at 37%. Expected goals: Virtus Entella 1.17, Cesena 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match40
32
28
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Virtus Entella | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Cesena | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Virtus Entella. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 2–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Virtus Entella 0| Virtus Entella line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 24% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.