Predictions · Coppa Italia · outside model coverage
Hellas Verona
2–2
Lost
Virtus Entella
The model leans Hellas Verona at 41%. Expected goals: Hellas Verona 1.07, Virtus Entella 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 67%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match44
35
21
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hellas Verona | 44% | 2.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Virtus Entella | 21% | 4.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hellas Verona. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.07 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.2%
- 0–018.0%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hellas Verona −0.5| Hellas Verona line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 27% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 33% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.