Valencia
Castellon
The model leans Valencia at 43%. Expected goals: Valencia 1.59, Castellon 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Valencia won 1 of their last 5; Castellon won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Valencia | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.66 | – | – | – |
| 2Castellon | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Valencia. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–26.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Valencia −0.5| Valencia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.