Girona
Castellon
The model leans Girona at 37%. Expected goals: Girona 1.26, Castellon 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Girona won 0 of their last 3; Castellon won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Girona | 39% | 2.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Castellon | 31% | 3.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: Girona. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Girona 0| Girona line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.