Girona
Leganes
The model leans Girona at 50%. Expected goals: Girona 1.31, Leganes 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 64%. Girona won 0 of their last 3; Leganes won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Girona | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Leganes | 17% | 5.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Girona. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.7%
- 0–014.2%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Girona −0.5| Girona line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 13% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.