Girona
Arsenal
The model leans Arsenal at 60%. Expected goals: Girona 0.49, Arsenal 1.77. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 67%. Girona won 0 of their last 3; Arsenal won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Girona | 9% | 11.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Arsenal | 68% | 1.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arsenal. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.49 – 1.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–118.5%
- 0–216.4%
- 0–010.4%
- 0–39.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arsenal −1| Girona line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 8% | 90% |
| -0.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| 0 | 10% | 22% | 69% |
| +0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| +1 | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| +1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.