Arsenal
Borussia Dortmund
The model leans Arsenal at 60%. Expected goals: Arsenal 1.99, Borussia Dortmund 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Arsenal won 2 of their last 5; Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | 66% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Borussia Dortmund | 11% | 8.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arsenal. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.99 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.3%
- 2–013.3%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.8%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 41% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arsenal −1| Arsenal line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 20% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.