Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
The model leans Borussia Dortmund at 62%. Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.35, Hamburger SV 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 51%. Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 6; Hamburger SV won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Borussia Dortmund | 71% | 1.41 | 1.38 | 69% | +3 |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.36 | 5.25 | 18% | +1 |
| 2Hamburger SV | 10% | 9.70 | 7.00 | 14% | −3 |
Pick: Borussia Dortmund. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.35 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Borussia Dortmund −1.5| Borussia Dortmund line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.