Cerezo Osaka
Borussia Dortmund
The model leans Borussia Dortmund at 50%. Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka 1.27, Borussia Dortmund 1.88. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. Cerezo Osaka won 4 of their last 6; Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cerezo Osaka | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Borussia Dortmund | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Borussia Dortmund. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 1.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.5%
- 2–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Borussia Dortmund −0.5| Cerezo Osaka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 22% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.