Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München
The model leans Bayern München at 51%. Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 1.60, Bayern München 2.46. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 74%. Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 6; Bayern München won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Borussia Dortmund | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Bayern München | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayern München. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.60 – 2.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.4%
- 1–36.9%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 2–35.5%
- 2–15.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 66% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayern München −1| Borussia Dortmund line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 13% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 19% | 57% |
| +0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| +1 | 43% | 20% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.