Bayern München
RB Leipzig
The model leans Bayern München at 69%. Expected goals: Bayern München 3.55, RB Leipzig 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 70%. Bayern München won 6 of their last 6; RB Leipzig won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern München | 79% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.37 | – | – | – |
| 2RB Leipzig | 9% | 11.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayern München. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.55 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.8%
- 4–16.9%
- 2–16.6%
- 3–06.2%
- 4–05.5%
- 2–05.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayern München −2| Bayern München line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| -1 | 63% | 17% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 11% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.