VfL Osnabrück
Bayern München
The model leans Bayern München at 67%. Expected goals: VfL Osnabrück 0.98, Bayern München 2.87. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 59%. VfL Osnabrück won 1 of their last 4; Bayern München won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfL Osnabrück | 9% | 10.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Bayern München | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayern München. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 2.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 0–28.8%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–38.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–16.1%
- 0–46.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayern München −2| VfL Osnabrück line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 7% | 90% |
| -0.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| 0 | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| +0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| +1 | 24% | 20% | 56% |
| +1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.