Bochum
VfL Osnabrück
The model leans VfL Osnabrück at 41%. Expected goals: Bochum 1.08, VfL Osnabrück 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Bochum won 2 of their last 6; VfL Osnabrück won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bochum | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2VfL Osnabrück | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: VfL Osnabrück. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–28.4%
- 0–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: VfL Osnabrück −0.5| Bochum line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 23% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.