Bochum
Ajax
The model leans Ajax at 50%. Expected goals: Bochum 1.29, Ajax 1.89. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%. Bochum won 2 of their last 6; Ajax won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bochum | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Ajax | 50% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ajax. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–16.6%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ajax −0.5| Bochum line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 22% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.