FC Volendam
Ajax
The model leans Ajax at 50%. Expected goals: FC Volendam 1.07, Ajax 1.70. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. FC Volendam won 3 of their last 6; Ajax won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Volendam | 23% | 4.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Ajax | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ajax. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.07 – 1.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–06.7%
- 0–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ajax −0.5| FC Volendam line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.