Ajax
SC Heerenveen
The model leans Ajax at 50%. Expected goals: Ajax 2.06, SC Heerenveen 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. Ajax won 5 of their last 6; SC Heerenveen won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax | 51% | 1.94 | 1.44 | 66% | −14 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.33 | 4.75 | 20% | +3 |
| 2SC Heerenveen | 25% | 3.93 | 6.50 | 14% | +11 |
Pick: Ajax. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.06 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.3%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.6%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ajax −0.5| Ajax line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 21% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 21% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.