SC Heerenveen
FC Twente
The model leans FC Twente at 38%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 1.46, FC Twente 1.65. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. SC Heerenveen won 2 of their last 5; FC Twente won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Heerenveen | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.87 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Twente | 41% | 2.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Twente. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 1.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–06.5%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: SC Heerenveen 0| SC Heerenveen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 18% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 21% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.