Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

SC Heerenveen

44
Lost

OH Leuven

The model leans SC Heerenveen at 51%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 1.92, OH Leuven 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%. SC Heerenveen won 2 of their last 5; OH Leuven won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1SC Heerenveen57%1.76
XDraw24%4.15
2OH Leuven19%5.23

Pick: SC Heerenveen. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.92 – 1.04
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.557%43%
3.534%66%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.4%
  • 1010.0%
  • 219.9%
  • 209.6%
  • 316.3%
  • 306.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: SC Heerenveen −1
SC Heerenveen lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.534%66%
-134%24%42%
-0.558%42%
058%22%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%13%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.