OH Leuven
Standard Liège
The model leans Standard Liège at 37%. Expected goals: OH Leuven 1.06, Standard Liège 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%. OH Leuven won 0 of their last 6; Standard Liège won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1OH Leuven | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| 2Standard Liège | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Standard Liège. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–09.9%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–27.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: OH Leuven 0| OH Leuven line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.