KV Mechelen
Standard Liege
The model leans Standard Liege at 37%. Expected goals: KV Mechelen 1.17, Standard Liege 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%. KV Mechelen won 0 of their last 5; Standard Liege won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1KV Mechelen | 32% | 3.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Standard Liege | 39% | 2.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: Standard Liege. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–08.3%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: KV Mechelen 0| KV Mechelen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.