Standard Liege
Cercle Brugge
The model leans Standard Liege at 50%. Expected goals: Standard Liege 1.68, Cercle Brugge 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Standard Liege won 2 of their last 5; Cercle Brugge won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Standard Liege | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Cercle Brugge | 22% | 4.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Standard Liege. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.68 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–16.9%
- 0–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Standard Liege −0.5| Standard Liege line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.