Predictions · Belgian Pro League · outside model coverage

Club Brugge

10
Won

Cercle Brugge

The model leans Club Brugge at 69%. Expected goals: Club Brugge 3.34, Cercle Brugge 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 63%. Club Brugge won 3 of their last 6; Cercle Brugge won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Club Brugge80%1.24
XDraw12%8.28
2Cercle Brugge7%13.35

Pick: Club Brugge. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.34 – 1.04
LineOverUnder
1.593%7%
2.581%19%
3.564%36%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 318.1%
  • 307.8%
  • 217.3%
  • 207.0%
  • 416.8%
  • 406.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Club Brugge −2
Club Brugge lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.564%36%
-164%17%19%
-0.581%19%
081%11%8%
+0.592%8%
+192%5%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.