Cercle Brugge
St.Truiden
The model leans St.Truiden at 45%. Expected goals: Cercle Brugge 1.21, St.Truiden 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Cercle Brugge won 0 of their last 4; St.Truiden won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cercle Brugge | 26% | 3.88 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2St.Truiden | 48% | 2.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: St.Truiden. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St.Truiden −0.5| Cercle Brugge line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 23% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.