Royal Antwerp
St.Truiden
The model leans St.Truiden at 41%. Expected goals: Royal Antwerp 1.03, St.Truiden 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Royal Antwerp won 2 of their last 6; St.Truiden won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Royal Antwerp | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| 2St.Truiden | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: St.Truiden. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–28.7%
- 0–08.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St.Truiden −0.5| Royal Antwerp line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 17% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.