Predictions · Belgian Pro League · outside model coverage

Royal Antwerp

14
Won

St.Truiden

The model leans St.Truiden at 41%. Expected goals: Royal Antwerp 1.03, St.Truiden 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Royal Antwerp won 2 of their last 6; St.Truiden won 1 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Royal Antwerp26%3.82
XDraw29%3.42
2St.Truiden45%2.24

Pick: St.Truiden. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.42
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.544%56%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.6%
  • 0112.2%
  • 129.0%
  • 108.9%
  • 028.7%
  • 008.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: St.Truiden −0.5
Royal Antwerp lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.510%90%
-110%17%73%
-0.527%73%
027%27%46%
+0.554%46%
+154%24%22%
+1.578%22%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.