Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

Millwall

10
Won

Royal Antwerp

The model leans Millwall at 50%. Expected goals: Millwall 1.48, Royal Antwerp 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%. Millwall won 3 of their last 6; Royal Antwerp won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Millwall50%2.01
XDraw29%3.47
2Royal Antwerp21%4.68

Pick: Millwall. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.48 – 0.89
LineOverUnder
1.568%32%
2.542%58%
3.521%79%
Both teams to scoreYes45%No55%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.9%
  • 1112.3%
  • 2010.3%
  • 009.4%
  • 219.1%
  • 018.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Millwall −0.5
Millwall lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%25%49%
-0.551%49%
051%26%23%
+0.577%23%
+177%15%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.