Predictions · Belgian Pro League · outside model coverage

Royal Antwerp

44
Lost

Genk

The model leans Genk at 37%. Expected goals: Royal Antwerp 1.16, Genk 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Royal Antwerp won 2 of their last 6; Genk won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Royal Antwerp31%3.22
XDraw29%3.40
2Genk40%2.53

Pick: Genk. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.34
LineOverUnder
1.571%29%
2.546%54%
3.524%76%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.7%
  • 0111.0%
  • 109.5%
  • 128.5%
  • 008.2%
  • 217.4%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Royal Antwerp 0
Royal Antwerp lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.513%87%
-113%19%68%
-0.532%68%
032%27%41%
+0.559%41%
+159%22%19%
+1.581%19%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.