Predictions · Belgian Pro League · outside model coverage

Zulte Waregem

21
Lost

Genk

The model leans Genk at 39%. Expected goals: Zulte Waregem 1.29, Genk 1.55. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Zulte Waregem won 3 of their last 6; Genk won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Zulte Waregem31%3.27
XDraw27%3.68
2Genk42%2.37

Pick: Genk. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.55
LineOverUnder
1.578%22%
2.554%46%
3.532%68%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.7%
  • 129.1%
  • 019.0%
  • 217.5%
  • 107.5%
  • 027.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Zulte Waregem 0
Zulte Waregem lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%18%68%
-0.532%68%
032%25%43%
+0.557%43%
+157%22%22%
+1.578%22%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.