Genk
SK Beveren
The model leans SK Beveren at 31%. Expected goals: Genk 1.34, SK Beveren 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 56%. Genk won 3 of their last 6; SK Beveren won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Genk | 36% | 2.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.52 | – | – | – |
| 2SK Beveren | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: SK Beveren. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 11% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Genk 0| Genk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.