Bayer Leverkusen
Genk
The model leans Bayer Leverkusen at 55%. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.16, Genk 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%. Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 6; Genk won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayer Leverkusen | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.66 | – | – | – |
| 2Genk | 15% | 6.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.16 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.3%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayer Leverkusen −1| Bayer Leverkusen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.