RW Essen
Bayer Leverkusen
The model leans Bayer Leverkusen at 65%. Expected goals: RW Essen 1.24, Bayer Leverkusen 3.13. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 68%. RW Essen won 3 of their last 6; Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1RW Essen | 11% | 8.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | 74% | 1.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 3.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 63% | 37% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–38.1%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–36.5%
- 1–46.3%
- 0–26.2%
- 0–45.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayer Leverkusen −2| RW Essen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 7% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 14% | 75% |
| +0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| +1 | 25% | 19% | 56% |
| +1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.