Saarbrücken
RW Essen
The model leans RW Essen at 40%. Expected goals: Saarbrücken 1.75, RW Essen 1.97. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. Saarbrücken won 2 of their last 5; RW Essen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Saarbrücken | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.33 | – | – | – |
| 2RW Essen | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
Pick: RW Essen. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.75 – 1.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.4%
- 0–14.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Saarbrücken 0| Saarbrücken line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 17% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 21% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 19% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.