Saarbrücken
Hertha BSC
The model leans Hertha BSC at 40%. Expected goals: Saarbrücken 1.23, Hertha BSC 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Saarbrücken won 2 of their last 5; Hertha BSC won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Saarbrücken | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Hertha BSC | 44% | 2.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hertha BSC. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 1.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hertha BSC −0.5| Saarbrücken line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.