RW Essen
St. Pauli
The model leans RW Essen at 40%. Expected goals: RW Essen 1.75, St. Pauli 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. RW Essen won 3 of their last 6; St. Pauli won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1RW Essen | 44% | 2.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
| 2St. Pauli | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: RW Essen. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.75 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.5%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RW Essen −0.5| RW Essen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.