AFC Bournemouth
St. Pauli
The model leans AFC Bournemouth at 69%. Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 2.54, St. Pauli 0.56. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. AFC Bournemouth won 1 of their last 4; St. Pauli won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Bournemouth | 80% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.72 | – | – | – |
| 2St. Pauli | 5% | 18.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: AFC Bournemouth. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.54 – 0.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.6%
- 3–012.3%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–07.8%
- 3–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AFC Bournemouth −2| AFC Bournemouth line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| -1 | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| -0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| 0 | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.