Mainz 05
AFC Bournemouth
The model leans AFC Bournemouth at 50%. Expected goals: Mainz 05 1.00, AFC Bournemouth 1.69. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Mainz 05 won 3 of their last 5; AFC Bournemouth won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mainz 05 | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| 2AFC Bournemouth | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: AFC Bournemouth. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.00 – 1.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–06.8%
- 1–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 38% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AFC Bournemouth −0.5| Mainz 05 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 24% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.