Mainz 05
0–0
Lost
Paderborn
The model leans Mainz 05 at 51%. Expected goals: Mainz 05 1.98, Paderborn 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default57
24
20
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mainz 05 | 57% | 1.77 | 1.50 | 63% | −7 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.24 | 4.50 | 21% | +2 |
| 2Paderborn | 20% | 5.04 | 6.00 | 16% | +4 |
Pick: Mainz 05. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.98 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.5%
- 3–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mainz 05 −1| Mainz 05 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 23% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 22% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.