Udinese
Mainz 05
The model leans Udinese at 37%. Expected goals: Udinese 1.23, Mainz 05 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Udinese won 4 of their last 6; Mainz 05 won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Udinese | 39% | 2.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Mainz 05 | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Udinese. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Udinese 0| Udinese line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 23% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 28% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.