Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel
The model leans Mainz 05 at 54%. Expected goals: Mainz 05 1.89, Holstein Kiel 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Mainz 05 won 3 of their last 5; Holstein Kiel won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mainz 05 | 63% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Holstein Kiel | 14% | 7.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mainz 05. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.89 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.1%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.8%
- 0–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 37% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mainz 05 −1| Mainz 05 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 22% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.